My dear Brendan, I hope all is well. I do enjoy our reparte!
You allude to ignoble motives to scientists. As in all human endeavors I concede this is quite possible. However I am constrained to point out that sciene advances by evidenced based conclusions and reproducibility of results by independent researchers. Unlike politics, science has efficient safeguards, so I reject your argument.
I hate to refute your premise, but solar radiant enery output has been static for the last 100 years and science has ruled out that it is contributory to global warming. Tectonic volcanism is also excluded as contributory. The remaining and direct cause of global warming is human activity.
The most direct method for measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for periods before direct sampling is to measure bubbles of air (fluid or gas inclusions) trapped in the Antarctic or Greenland ice caps. The most widely accepted of such studies come from a variety of Antarctic cores and indicate that atmospheric CO2 levels were about 260 – 280 ppmv immediately before industrial emissions began and did not vary much from this level during the preceding 10,000 years (10 kyr).
In 1959 the measured CO2 level was 319 ppmv in 2009 the level measured was 384 ppmv a 20% increase, and the rate of increase in accelerating. Why? Because the Indians and CHinese are making the same stupid choices we made; more cars, more refrigerators, more AC, more coal burning factories, etc. The CO2 rise Brendan in not linear, but logarithmic!
Here is the list of organizations that attribute global warming to humanity;
Union of concerned scientists
Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing us today. To protect the health and economic well-being of current and future generations, we must reduce our emissions of heat-trapping gases by using the technology, know-how, and practical solutions already at our disposal."1
Woods hole research center
"we may recall the extensive and incredibly successful campaign of the american tobacco companies to conceal the link between cancer and the use of tobacco products. For decades, they knew the reality of the addictive nature of nicotine and the carcinogenic effects of tobacco use. For decades, they successfully kept that reality hidden from the american public. The oil, coal, gas, and mining industries stand to lose tremendously if the truth about global warming becomes accepted by american society. As the tobacco industry invested millions in keeping its deadly secret, so also have the oil, coal, gas, and mining industries attempted to hide and discredit the link between co2 emissions and a warming earth."1
Intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc)
third assessment report (2001)
fourth assessment report ( 2007)
United nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc)
Even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the 21st century are likely to be significant and disruptive.”1
American association for the advancement of science (aaas)
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society [snip]the conclusions in this statement reflect the scientific consensus
represented by, for example, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (www.ipcc.ch/), and the joint national academies’ statement (http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf)..- aaas board statement on climate change approved by the aaas board of directors 9 december 2006
"aaas president john p. Holdren and ceo alan i. Leshner sunday called for the u.s. Public and their leaders to “muster the political will for serious evasive action” to address climate change. Writing in the san francisco chronicle, the two aaas leaders said that there can be no doubt about the reality of climate change."1
American meteorological society (ams)
The american meteorological society endorses the "joint academies' statement: global response to climate change" released by the national academies of science of 11 countries, including the u.s., on 7 june 2005.”1
"human activities have become a major source of environmental change. Of great urgency are the climate consequences of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases and other trace constituents ... [that] interact strongly with the earth's energy balance, resulting in the prospect of significant global warming. ... Because greenhouse gases continue to increase, we are, in effect, conducting a global climate experiment, neither planned nor controlled, the results of which may present unprecedented challenges to our wisdom and foresight as well as have significant impacts on our natural and societal systems. It is a long-term problem that requires a long-term perspective. Important decisions confront current and future national and world leaders." - bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 84, 508—515
National research council
The following assessment was produced by the nrc, a branch of the national academies of sciences, at the request of the white house in 2001:
"greenhouse gases are accumulating in earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century. ... The impacts of [climate change] will be critically dependent on the magnitude of the warming and the rate with which it occurs." - climate change science: an analysis of some key questiosn, 2001
Canadian meteorological and oceanographic society (cmos)
"cmos endorses the process of periodic climate science assessment carried out by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) and supports the conclusion, in its third assessment report, which states that the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." 1
Federal climate change science program
Discrepancies between the data sets and the models have been reduced and our understanding of observed climate changes and their causes has increased. Given this, there is no longer sufficient evidence to conclude that there exists any notable discrepancy between our understanding of recent global average temperature changes and model simulations of these changes. This represents a change from conclusions of earlier reports (see above) and should constitute a valuable source of information to policymakers.”1, 2, 3
National oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa)
While milankovitch cycles have tremendous value as a theory to explain ice-ages and long-term changes in the climate, they are unlikely to have very much impact on the decade-century timescale. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters, however for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these changes will be far less important than radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.” 1
Un project on climate variability and predictability
video of their chairman, tim palmer
American geophysical union
Because human activities are contributing to and accelerating climate change, we have a collective responsibility to develop and undertake carefully considered response actions.”1
"human activities are increasingly altering the earth's climate. These effects add to natural influences that have been present over earth's history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century. ... A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster than at any time in earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects. ... Moreover, research indicates that increased levels of carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. It is virtually certain that increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause global surface climate to be warmer. ... The unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, together with other human influences on climate over the past century and those anticipated for the future, constitute a real basis for concern." - human impacts on climate, 2003
Geological society of america
"the geological society of america (gsa) supports the scientific conclusions that earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries. Furthermore, the potential implications of global climate change and the time scale over which such changes will likely occur require active, effective, long-term planning. ... Gsa strongly encourages that the following efforts be undertaken internationally: (1) adequately research climate change at all time scales, (2) develop thoughtful, science-based policy appropriate for the multifaceted issues of global climate change, (3) organize global planning to recognize, prepare for, and adapt to the causes and consequences of global climate change, and (4) organize and develop comprehensive, long-term strategies for sustainable energy, particularly focused on minimizing impacts on global climate."- position statement, global climate change, 2006
American chemical society - (world's largest scientific organization with over 155,000 members)
"accumulating evidence clearly shows that our environment and the global climate system are changing. Global average temperatures, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, sea levels, and extreme weather events are on the rise. ... There is now general agreement among scientific experts that the recent warming trend is real (and particularly strong within the past 20 years), that most of the observed warming is likely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and that climate change could have serious adverse effects by the end of this century. ... In addition to climate research, scientists, industry, and government should implement measures to cost-effectively protect the climate and intensify efforts to develop technologies that—in addition to meeting other societal goals—could help us mitigate and adapt to the potential effects of climate change." - global climate change, 2004
Federal climate change science program, 2006 - commissioned by the bush administration in 2002
Studies ... Show clear evidence of human influences on the climate system (due to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone). ... The observed patterns of change over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural processes alone, nor by the effects of short-lived atmospheric constituents (such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone) alone. -source
Stratigraphy commission - geological society of london - the world's oldest and the united kingdom's largest geoscience organization
"global climate change is increasingly recognised as the key threat to the continued development – and even survival - of humanity. ... We find that the evidence for human-induced climate change is now persuasive, and the need for direct action compelling." -
Engineers australia (the institution of engineers australia)
"engineers australia believes that australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers australia believes the australian government should ratify the kyoto protocol." -source
American association of state climatologists
"the aasc recognizes that human activities have an influence on the climate system. Such activities, however, are not limited to greenhouse gas forcing and include changing land use and sulfate emissions, which further complicates the issue of climate prediction. Furthermore, climate predictions have not demonstrated skill in projecting future variability and changes in such important climate conditions as growing season, drought, flood-producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms. These are the type of events that have a more significant impact on society than annual average global temperature trends. ... The difficulty of prediction and the impossibility of verification of predictions decades into the future are important factors that allow for competing views of the long-term climate future. Therefore, the aasc recommends that policies related to long-term climate not be based on particular predictions, but instead should focus on policy alternatives that make sense for a wide range of plausible climatic conditions regardless of future climate. ... [o]ngoing political debate about global energy policy should not stand in the way of common sense action to reduce societal and environmental vulnerabilities to climate variability and change." - policy statement on climate variability and change by the american association of state climatologists (aasc)
Us geological survey (usgs)
The most authoritative report on this issue is climate change 1995: ipcc second assessment report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), which is part of the united nations environmental programme. The ipcc has a large amount of information on their web site dealing with this topic.geochange faq
National center for atmospheric research (ncar)
To slow the rate of climate change, we can decrease the amount of carbon dioxide that we release into the atmosphere.”12
Nasa's goddard institute of space studies (giss)
From my perspective, strong evidence is already accumulating that weighs heavily against the skeptics contentions that there is no significant global warming and that climate sensitivity is low.”1 –dr. James hansen, lead climate scientist and director of goddard
Woods hole oceanographic institute – ocean and climate change institute
Global warming is pretty well accepted by the scientific community. Because greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to continue rising throughout the next century, our expectations over the next 100 or 200 years are that we will continue to see an upward trend in temperatures.”1
World meteorological organization
Wmo stresses importance of adaptation strategies to complement climate change mitigation efforts”1
United nations environment program
The potential consequences of climate change are profound, particularly on people in the less developed countries. The question is therefore not whether climate change is happening, but what to do about it.”1
Canadian foundation for climate and atmospherice sciences
90 canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private sectors sent the prime minister of canada an open letter. It says "we concur with the climate science assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) in 2001,.....we urge you and your government to develop an effective national strategy to deal with the many important aspects of climate that will affect both canada and the rest of the world in the near future."1
International council on science
"the earth’s environment is changing due to human activities, and is undermining sustainable development"1
State of the canadian cryosphere (socc)
www.socc.ca/permafrost/permafrost_future_e.cfmEnvironmental protection agency (epa)
yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/index.htmlAmerican astronomical society
In endorsing the "human impacts on climate" statement, the aas recognizes the collective expertise of the agu in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our agu colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change. -american astronomical society, 2004
The australian meteorological and oceanographic society
The greenhouse effect is a natural and well-understood phenomenon [snip] most of the observed warming is highly likely due to human activity it is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity. Concentrations of a range of other potent greenhouse gases, such as cfcs<!--[if !supportfootnotes]-->[4]<!--[endif]-->, methane and nitrous oxide, have increased also as a result of human activity, and have contributed to the observed warming. Conversely, some other by-products of human activity, most notably industrial aerosols, have had a cooling effect on the atmosphere, and have offset some of the warming from the enhanced greenhouse effect. - the australian meteorological and oceanographic society statement on climate change
American institute of physics
The governing board of the american institute of physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the american geophysical union (agu) council in december 2003.- american institute of physics, 2003
Pew center on climate change
The scientific community has reached a strong consensus regarding the science of global climate change. The world is undoubtedly warming. This warming is largely the result of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from human activities... - global warming basics
World wildlife fund
Climate change is among the most pervasive threats to the web of life, yet we have the power to address its root causes and limit its impact on the planet. Smart energy choices made by individuals and businesses can dramatically reduce co2 emissions and slow global warming. Without action, climate change will cause the extinction of countless species and destroy some of the world's most precious ecosystems. -
worldwildlife.org/climate/Summary, despite what Josh argues, there is scientific consensus that the planet is warming, that science excludes solar radiant output and tectonic volcanism as contributory. Scientists and scientic organizations correctly conclude based on evidenced based science that humanity is the architect of this crisis. Our arrogance, our rejection of harmony with nature, our rejection of God's command that we be stewards of his creation, not exploiters, and our lust for profit has brought us to the precipace.
As the only nation that rejected the Kyoto treaty (Damn you George Bush), we must demonstrate leadership and be pioneers. We need to use American ingenuity to invent the technology of the future and then sell it to the rest of the world. America needs to lead as we have always lead. George Bush stuck our nation's head in the ground in phony denial, a truly stupid and pathetic parody of Nero. I pity him for his karmic debt.
It is time to act and to assert American leadership. I still believe in America.
Wow, that was a mouthful!